Explaining the Iraq War: counterfactual theory, logic and evidence

Introduction

Comparative counterfactual analysis and the 2003 Iraq War

Leadership, political context(s) and the Iraq War

Democratic national security advisers

Domestic and congressional politics

American intelligence failures and miscalculations

Societal pressures and public opinion

International politics, global WMD consensus and UN power balancing

Hussein's mistakes, miscalculations and misperceptions

Summary and implications

Conclusion